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Saturday, February 03, 2007 

Kauto Star on the rise

A woman I knew regularly took the opportunity to deride the beautiful game of soccer by describing it as nothing more than grown men running around a field after a ball of air. To my mind, horse racing is a bunch of four-footed animals mounted by men of stunted growth chasing each other around a field, sometimes jumping over a ditch.

Anyway, here are some more sage words on the sport from a guy who's spent many a Cheltenham smashing up B&Bs, drinking with RTE personalities and making a show of Offaly. He'd prefer to remain incognito, so we'll give him a similar name. Ladies and gents, I hand you over to Adrian Harrington.


The biggest question going into the festival this year will be can Kauto Star safely negotiate his way around the Cotswolds? And if he does, will he annihilate his opponents as he has done this season already? The most probable answer is a resounding yes. Even though he does not jump that well, Kauto Star seems to have the athleticism to recover. When One Knight won in Cheltenham four years ago, he almost flattened every fence and gave all his punters, including this one, many an anxious moment as he approached each jump. It argues well that these fences, as tough as they are, may be negotiable for the still progressive Kauto.

Another factor is the opposition. Although War of Attrition‘s Gold Cup win last year was memorable, he has been a bit of a disappointment. After following up in Punchestown, he was expected to dominate this season but we are still waiting for him to produce the goods. The ground seems to be a problem but the old saying is a good horse goes on any type of ground. There will be no worries in the Paul Nicholls yard what way the weather is in early March. If War of Attrition jumps the last and Kauto Star is still in with a fighting chance, it will be a much more difficult assignment than taking on last year's runner up Hedgehunter and Michael O Brian’s Forget the Past.

Forget the Past’s stable mate, In Compliance may be this year's hype horse. He is still unproven over three miles and there may be a slight doubt over his jumping. An interesting prospect alright but that long Cheltenham hill might end Barry Geraghty's chances. A drop in trip not out of the question here. Beef or Salmon will try again and this would be my idea of an each-way chance - he obviously sees Cheltenham in the same way Mayo footballers see Croke Park on All-Ireland final day.

But, like Mayo, the quality is there and Beef or Salmon will stay going up the hill unlike many others. Last year's run can be discarded as the horse obviously was not happy before the start, a faller in the first year and was staying on well behind Best Mate the following year. If you take out The Listener who revelled in the heavy ground in The Lexus Chase during Christmas, Beef or Salmon had War of Attrition well beaten. Not bad for a 25/1 shot who has now beaten the Gold Cup Champion twice in the one year; who can forget that memorable race in Down Royal?

State of Play, Hedgehunter and Our Vic will all have their each-way support but it is still hard to judge if they really are up to Gold Cup Class. Our Vic may have the quality but there is a big question on stamina.

For this punter, there will be only one winner come next March. At 6/4 the value may be gone on Kauto Star but I would feel safer putting my sterling on The Charlie Hall, Tingle Creek and King George winner than anything else. History usually repeats itself and when Kauto rattled the last at Kempton one could only remember a short two years previously when Kicking King tried the same trick and somehow managed to come off safe. Kicking King stormed home the following March and expect the new star of national hunt racing to do the same. So it's Paul Nicholls Kauto Star to win easily and the people’s champion Beef or Salmon the each-way bet.

For all the punters who still fancy War of Attrition you can back an Irish treble of War of Attrition (Gold Cup), Brave Inca (Champion Hurdle) and Newmill (Champion Chase) to repeat last years treble at 125/1. GET ON!!


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Published by Colm.  

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