The world is rapidly approaching ‘Peak Oil’, the critical point at which oil supply growth ceases and total oil production starts to decline. This was the message at the Global Energy Public Seminar organised by Energy Futures and held in the Mansion House, Dublin a couple of weeks ago. Two members of Crew Infactah were there to hear four guest speakers give their thoughts on the future of energy security for Ireland, Europe and the world at large over the next two decades.

Record oil prices, increasing global demand and security of energy supply have become a major concern all around the world recently. Societies are hugely oil dependant and the developing economies of China and India are creating greater demand to use up the oil stock reserves. Political instability in the Middle East along with natural disasters have seen the price of oil rocket to an all time high of $75 a barrel compared with $19 at the start of the Iraq war.

Geologist Dr. Colin Campbell advised that “what matters is the vision of long decline, not of when the oil runs out”. With the current global requirement estimated at 84 million barrels a day, it is an inescapable reality that over the next decade the increasing demand for oil cannot be met by ever declining production. Last year alone for every barrel of oil that was produced, five were consumed. Chris Skrebowski, editor of the UK Petroleum Review spoke of how first world countries will have to dig deep into our pockets to satisfy our current oil thirst but how increasing prices are much more serious issue in developing countries. He painted a doomsday scenario outlining how governments’ failure to act now will ultimately lead to major infrastructure problems and financial collapse when there is a global energy epidemic which he estimates could be as soon as 2015.

So why aren’t governments more proactive and at least discussing this issue which has such important future economic implications? Dr. Colin Campbell suggested that official institutions provide bland scenarios for governments to hide behind enabling them to avoid having to make tough political decisions on energy policy. However one country has taken up the gauntlet and is leading by example.

The Swedish government has established the ‘The Swedish Commission against Oil Dependency’ whose vision is to make Sweden independent of major requirement for oil by 2020. Patrick Klintbom of Volvo spoke of his own company’s four focus areas in relation to future energy production – the oil situation, biomass potential as an alternative fuel source, transport sector, heat & power. While admitting that oil independency is not a realistic target in terms of the entire transport sector by 2020 at least they are moving in the right direction. Bio-fuels can replace fossil fuels but it needs a lot of planning and land strategy initiatives if crops are to be grown for energy purposes. The Swedish government is due to issue a report before the summer of this year outlining short and mid-term goals in an effort to further improve their campaign to become oil independent.

Considering Ireland is at the end of a 5000km pipeline from Russia we are more vulnerable to the consequences of ‘Peak Oil’ than many. So what will our Government do? Well, it could start by removing all duty and tax on bio-fuels and offering farmers incentives to grow bio-crops such as rape seed, elephant grass and willow as viable alternatives to traditional crops. It could convert the now defunct sugar beet plant in Carlow to a bio-fuel processing plant. It could totally overhaul our public transport by moving to electro/bio-fuel powered vehicles. It could change road taxation policy to penalise people driving oil derivative guzzling vehicles such as SUVs. It could further incentivise and facilitate our capability to generate power from wind and wave energy.

Of course such innovation and foresight doesn’t come cheap but the cost to our society if we don’t begin to act now would be immeasurable. Cheap accessible oil, a one off gift offered to us by Mother Nature is nearing its end date and the global party it has facilitated is about to crash and burn. The time to act is now.

Contributors: Micheal and Padraig

Tags: Environment,Oil,Energy