Cheltenham 2006 - Day 2 Tips
We've barely got our heads above water after day 1. With a profit of €2.50 in our pockets we can at least afford a coffee while perusing the form cards for day 2 over breakfast this morning.
Hopefully we'll have a bit more luck today. Here are our tips from the 'winners' at www.layingloser.com.
2.00 Refinement €5 each/way or Denman €10 to win
2.35 Darkness €10 to win
3.15 Fota Island €5 to win
2.00 Royal & SunAlliance Novices' Hurdle
It s very hard to see Denman getting beat here with Nicholls even stating that this was his best horse and after seeing Noland winning in fine style yesterday, then he must definitely be something special. He is very short odds though so I think that Refinement at 7/1 offers much better value each way. He has a great chance on this softer going although his age does not suit the winning profile as 5/6 yr olds have provided the winner from 28/31 runnings.
Verdict: Denman to win but if you find the price too short for your liking, then I would recommend backing Refinement each way.
2.35 Royal & SunAlliance Chase
A tough one to call. The going which is now down as good to soft will mean the winner will be a proven stayer on testing ground. Also means that we need a horse who has the toughness gained from a good winter campaign. As the runners in this race are only novices, they are lacking the experience of an older warrior. On this note I am going to oppose Commercial Flyer. He has just ran once and with Pipes form out of sorts of late, I don't see him winning. Our Ben, Irelands hope in this race has credentials but to me still has not totally sold himself as a festival winner. His two starts at 3 miles have been unsuccessful and therefore is no way value at 4/1. The Listener is a solid horse but has fallen twice in his short career.
This leads me to Darkness. He has all the essentials to win a race like this and the trainer is in cracking form. The horse is proven on the testing groung and distance and is a course winner. The one thing that ails me is why the trainer has chosen Paddy Brennan to ride. However Paddy rode his first winner at Cheltenham today and he will surely be charged up to make it a double success for a trainer who has shown great faith in him.
Verdict: Darkness to win
3.15 Queen Mother Champion Chase
For all statisticians out there, 40 out of the last 46 winners have come from the first three in the betting. Its been 25 years since the winner failed to record a placing on its previous run, 17 of the last 21 have won or placed at previous festival. No horse over 10 or under 7 has won this race, bar Moscow Flyer last year, but he is special!
This all points to a win for Fota Island tomorrow. He's proven on going distance and course, and has retained McCoy as mount. There is no reason why he should not win.
Verdict: Moscow to go close but Fota Island to win.
4.00 Coral Cup (A Handicap Hurdle)
I desperately want Good Tyne Jack to win. He has been a revelation this year. He is a brilliant hold up horse and by booking Paul Carberry to ride, he will have no better tactician on board to produce him at the line. However he raced very poorly in Cheltenham last November when he was well fancied and that has to be a major negative point about him. Im hoping it was a once off blip and that he will come good today. The trainer is reknowned for his Irish raiders. I will be backing him each way.
The final two races are very open, but I would be hoping that Nina Carberry gives a good account of herself on Undeniable trading at about 25/1. The horse seems to act on any going and has won at this trip.
The Champion Bumber is traditionally won by the Irish and with Willie Mullins having 4 entries in this race it pays to side with Rubys choice, Equus Maximus. He won in fine style in Leopardstown in January and hopefully will live up to the hype. Its no certain matter though with half the field a chance of winning on their debut.
Published by Colm.
Hopefully we'll have a bit more luck today. Here are our tips from the 'winners' at www.layingloser.com.
2.00 Refinement €5 each/way or Denman €10 to win
2.35 Darkness €10 to win
3.15 Fota Island €5 to win
2.00 Royal & SunAlliance Novices' Hurdle
It s very hard to see Denman getting beat here with Nicholls even stating that this was his best horse and after seeing Noland winning in fine style yesterday, then he must definitely be something special. He is very short odds though so I think that Refinement at 7/1 offers much better value each way. He has a great chance on this softer going although his age does not suit the winning profile as 5/6 yr olds have provided the winner from 28/31 runnings.
Verdict: Denman to win but if you find the price too short for your liking, then I would recommend backing Refinement each way.
2.35 Royal & SunAlliance Chase
A tough one to call. The going which is now down as good to soft will mean the winner will be a proven stayer on testing ground. Also means that we need a horse who has the toughness gained from a good winter campaign. As the runners in this race are only novices, they are lacking the experience of an older warrior. On this note I am going to oppose Commercial Flyer. He has just ran once and with Pipes form out of sorts of late, I don't see him winning. Our Ben, Irelands hope in this race has credentials but to me still has not totally sold himself as a festival winner. His two starts at 3 miles have been unsuccessful and therefore is no way value at 4/1. The Listener is a solid horse but has fallen twice in his short career.
This leads me to Darkness. He has all the essentials to win a race like this and the trainer is in cracking form. The horse is proven on the testing groung and distance and is a course winner. The one thing that ails me is why the trainer has chosen Paddy Brennan to ride. However Paddy rode his first winner at Cheltenham today and he will surely be charged up to make it a double success for a trainer who has shown great faith in him.
Verdict: Darkness to win
3.15 Queen Mother Champion Chase
For all statisticians out there, 40 out of the last 46 winners have come from the first three in the betting. Its been 25 years since the winner failed to record a placing on its previous run, 17 of the last 21 have won or placed at previous festival. No horse over 10 or under 7 has won this race, bar Moscow Flyer last year, but he is special!
This all points to a win for Fota Island tomorrow. He's proven on going distance and course, and has retained McCoy as mount. There is no reason why he should not win.
Verdict: Moscow to go close but Fota Island to win.
4.00 Coral Cup (A Handicap Hurdle)
I desperately want Good Tyne Jack to win. He has been a revelation this year. He is a brilliant hold up horse and by booking Paul Carberry to ride, he will have no better tactician on board to produce him at the line. However he raced very poorly in Cheltenham last November when he was well fancied and that has to be a major negative point about him. Im hoping it was a once off blip and that he will come good today. The trainer is reknowned for his Irish raiders. I will be backing him each way.
The final two races are very open, but I would be hoping that Nina Carberry gives a good account of herself on Undeniable trading at about 25/1. The horse seems to act on any going and has won at this trip.
The Champion Bumber is traditionally won by the Irish and with Willie Mullins having 4 entries in this race it pays to side with Rubys choice, Equus Maximus. He won in fine style in Leopardstown in January and hopefully will live up to the hype. Its no certain matter though with half the field a chance of winning on their debut.
Published by Colm.
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