War with Iran?
Earlier in the week, Iran announced it was re-establishing its nuclear fuel operations, bringing condemnation from around the world, most forcibly from the US and Britain. The US said it risked "serious escalation" in its stand-off with the West after Tehran broke the seals on equipment at its uranium enrichment facility. Notably however, Jack Straw ruled out going to war with Iran and the Americans were keen to stress that they would pursue their options through the UN security council.
How real are the chances of war with Iran then? Given the motives for which we were led to believe warranted an attack on Iraq, is it not fair to assume that the threat to world security now posed by Iran warrants the same action as was taken in Iraq? This seems not to be the opinion of the US or Britain and it appears any major attack on Iran is remote. There are of course a number of obvious reasons. American military resources are considerably stretched at present and the US military simply may not have the capacity to mount an attack on another country. Secondly, and despite what some neo-cons might say, the political implications at home could be catastrophic for Bush if another war front was opened.
Thirdly, and perhaps a much less obvious reason; the US will never send ground troops into a country that might actually fight back. Iran, like North Korea, has too much military might at present. Iraq, on the other hand, was the weakest military force in the region when attacked in March 2003. Ten years of sanctions and air strikes saw to this along with the killing of hundreds of thousands of civilians. This allowed America to commence its pre-emptive war in the knowledge that they would face little in the way of resistance from the Iraqi National Guard.
Attacking Iran on the other hand would be a completely different proposition. Any assault would be met with much greater resistance than in Iraq and consequently American casualties would be far higher, something the US has been eager to avoid in every war it has fought since Vietnam. Instead we will likely see considerably more covert operations when dealing with Iran. There is already some evidence that America, Israel and Turkey have been attempting to stir up Azeri nationalists in Northern Iran for a number of years. Such actions, along with sanctions and 'selective' bombing, might help to destabilise Iran and potentially allow an American-backed government into power. There is also the issue of the Shiite Muslims in Iran. Any confrontation with the Shiites in Iran could destabilise the façade that is the government in Iraq, leading to even more problems. However America and its allies decide to deal with the current situation, the prospect of another war is unlikely.
Published by Padraig.
How real are the chances of war with Iran then? Given the motives for which we were led to believe warranted an attack on Iraq, is it not fair to assume that the threat to world security now posed by Iran warrants the same action as was taken in Iraq? This seems not to be the opinion of the US or Britain and it appears any major attack on Iran is remote. There are of course a number of obvious reasons. American military resources are considerably stretched at present and the US military simply may not have the capacity to mount an attack on another country. Secondly, and despite what some neo-cons might say, the political implications at home could be catastrophic for Bush if another war front was opened.
Thirdly, and perhaps a much less obvious reason; the US will never send ground troops into a country that might actually fight back. Iran, like North Korea, has too much military might at present. Iraq, on the other hand, was the weakest military force in the region when attacked in March 2003. Ten years of sanctions and air strikes saw to this along with the killing of hundreds of thousands of civilians. This allowed America to commence its pre-emptive war in the knowledge that they would face little in the way of resistance from the Iraqi National Guard.
Attacking Iran on the other hand would be a completely different proposition. Any assault would be met with much greater resistance than in Iraq and consequently American casualties would be far higher, something the US has been eager to avoid in every war it has fought since Vietnam. Instead we will likely see considerably more covert operations when dealing with Iran. There is already some evidence that America, Israel and Turkey have been attempting to stir up Azeri nationalists in Northern Iran for a number of years. Such actions, along with sanctions and 'selective' bombing, might help to destabilise Iran and potentially allow an American-backed government into power. There is also the issue of the Shiite Muslims in Iran. Any confrontation with the Shiites in Iran could destabilise the façade that is the government in Iraq, leading to even more problems. However America and its allies decide to deal with the current situation, the prospect of another war is unlikely.
Published by Padraig.
|